Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4b4…2c37 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,174 (+9%) realized +$1,187 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%37W / 36L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$266
14 days+$645
30 days+$1,328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$1,142
other 29% +$84
world 1% −$100
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 55% -2.4%
≤30d 47 -3.5% -12.7% 57% 57% +2.2%
≤90d 72 -17.2% -25.0% 50% 49% -1.7%
all 73 -12.8% -21.1% 51% 49% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 49% -1.6%
10% -28.7% 44% -11.0%
15% -35.6% 38% -19.6%
20% -41.9% 26% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$89 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized+$1,187
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses37 / 36
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions5
Markets (closed)73 / 79
History coverage98d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $400 $391 −$9 (-2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$58 +57%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $202 +$88 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$76 +38%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$101 +197%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 +$101 +99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$232 +114%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $856 +$276 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $794 +$171 +22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $279 −$275 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $101 −$7 -7%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $152 +$94 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $152 +$125 +82%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $303 +$120 +40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $518 +$108 +21%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $253 +$177 +70%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 06 $402 +$238 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $503 −$500 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $117 +$86 +73%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $496 +$320 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $60 −$59 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 29 $384 +$175 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $292 +$89 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $222 +$68 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $27 −$26 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $271 +$26 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $406 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $101 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 67¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 75¢ $101 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 27h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $101 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 42¢ $102 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $101 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $202 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $202 2d
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $51 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $204 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $202 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $203 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $51 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $51 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $203 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 9d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $1,132 11d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 75¢ $856 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.63 · official $688.42 (match) · 120 history records