Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4b3…87b8 world 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$148,669 (+8%) realized +$148,932 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate77%116W / 35L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$8,666per market
Trades / day54.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$191,645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$290
14 days+$157,980
30 days+$158,429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$157,942
world 27% +$1,688
crypto 10% +$544
sports 9% +$157
other 2% +$597
economics 1% +$294
tech 0% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +26.0% +14.0% 75% 45% -9.5%
≤30d 78 +8.3% -2.0% 74% 36% +8.7%
≤90d 151 +34.2% +21.4% 77% 32% +0.1%
all 151 +34.2% +21.4% 77% 32% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.4% 32% +0.1%
10% +9.8% 22% -9.5%
15% ← realistic here -0.8% 15% -18.3%
20% -10.5% 10% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,414 vs −$75 · ×18.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×68.72 per $1 lost it wins $68.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$191,645
Realized+$148,932
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses116 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions75
Markets (closed)151 / 202
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$8,666
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $142,621 $142,696 +$75 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25,560 $25,573 +$13 (+0%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 98¢ 98¢ $6,878 $6,877 −$1 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5,870 $5,873 +$3 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,665 $2,667 +$1 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 90¢ 100¢ $2,102 $2,331 +$229 (+11%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 88¢ 97¢ $1,064 $1,166 +$102 (+10%)
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 88¢ 86¢ $740 $725 −$16 (-2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 4¢ 92¢ $22 $458 +$436 (+2007%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $331 $340 +$9 (+3%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $316 $339 +$23 (+7%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? No 80¢ 99¢ $271 $337 +$67 (+25%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $293 $294 +$1 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 76¢ 96¢ $228 $288 +$60 (+26%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 100¢ 100¢ $226 $227 +$1 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $147 $152 +$4 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 76¢ 97¢ $86 $110 +$24 (+28%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $31 $100 +$70 (+225%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $94 $99 +$6 (+6%)
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $77 $99 +$22 (+29%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? No 77¢ 69¢ $71 $64 −$7 (-10%)
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? No 98¢ 100¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $359,500 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $111 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $23 +$50 +214%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $304 −$10 -3%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $819 +$57 +7%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon win the most seats in the Jun 13 $60 +$90 +151%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $121 +$29 +24%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $121 +$29 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $27 +$2 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2,205 +$4 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $6,620 +$62 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $46 +$5 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $84 +$15 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $39 +$5 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $48 +$6 +13%
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary e Jun 09 $536 −$42 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $56 +$29 +52%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $12 +$6 +46%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $28 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $495 +$15 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $33 +$25 +76%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Jun 06 $706 +$79 +11%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 05 $27 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $180,675 +$545 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $226,500 +$157,000 +69%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 02 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 01 $1,018 +$21 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 30 $388 +$6 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 30 $75 −$5 -7%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 30 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first roun May 30 $0 $0 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 30 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres SELL No 100¢ $25 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,997 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,990 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,870 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,665 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $22,200 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $11,100 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $11,100 38m
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $147 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $326 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $979 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $175,824 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $974 2h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $977 2h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $533 3h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $215 3h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $542 3h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $356 3h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $188 5h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191,644.75 · official $191,641.52 (match) · 3500 history records