Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

A4 0xa4b3…40e4 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$74 (-8%) realized −$71 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$123per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-21.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-13.0%	-21.3%	43%	43%	-32.2%
≤30d	7	-13.0%	-21.3%	43%	43%	-32.2%
≤90d	7	-13.0%	-21.3%	43%	43%	-32.2%
all	7	-13.0%	-21.3%	43%	43%	-32.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.3%	43%	-32.2%
10%	-28.8%	43%	-38.7%
15%	-35.7%	43%	-44.6%
20%	-42.0%	29%	-50.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$91 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$147

Realized−$71

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage4d

Avg bet$123

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	71¢	69¢	$150	$147	−$3 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 21	$221	−$18	-8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$141	−$141	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$15	+$15	+100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$150	+$71	+48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$100	+$70	+70%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$9	−$9	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$199	−$198	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$151	29m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	50¢	$186	31m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	22¢	$9	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	27¢	$31	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	21¢	$31	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	50¢	$16	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$221	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$221	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$150	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$170	46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$100	2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	15¢	$9	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$199	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.81 · official $146.83 (match) · 16 history records