Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A4 0xa4b2…1c67 crypto 573 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$42 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%300W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$408
7 days−$164
14 days+$403
30 days+$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,235
sports 14% +$497
other 1% +$216
world 0% −$28
politics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 +12.3% +1.6% 46% 42% -10.6%
≤30d 335 +13.3% +2.5% 50% 46% -7.4%
≤90d 571 +4.7% -5.3% 53% 46% -11.0%
all 571 +4.7% -5.3% 53% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 46% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 42% -19.5%
15% -22.6% 36% -27.3%
20% -30.2% 29% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$58 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses300 / 271
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)571 / 573
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $41 $13 −$28 (-69%)
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $318 +$182 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $108 +$34 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $191 +$109 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$141 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $285 +$315 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $128 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $109 +$91 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $125 +$75 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $137 +$63 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$140 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $186 +$14 +8%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $57 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $137 +$63 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $50 +$50 +100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$130 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $126 +$74 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$15 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $263 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$288 +2400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$310 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $156 +$144 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $240 −$236 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $142 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $64 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 58m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.97 · official $20.45 (match) · 3500 history records