Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A4 0xa4b1…f95a other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$299 (-10%) realized −$185 · open −$114

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%4W / 19L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$106per market

Trades / day14.8pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit31%portable

Net worth$480now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-59.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-55.5%	-59.8%	17%	17%	-21.0%
≤30d	23	-55.5%	-59.8%	17%	17%	-21.0%
≤90d	23	-55.5%	-59.8%	17%	17%	-21.0%
all	23	-55.5%	-59.8%	17%	17%	-21.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.8%	17%	-21.0%
10%	-63.6%	17%	-28.5%
15%	-67.1%	17%	-35.4%
20%	-70.4%	17%	-41.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -56% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -26% → late -83% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$325 vs −$85 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.81 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$480

Realized−$185

Unrealized−$114

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses4 / 19

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions6

Markets (closed)23 / 29

History coverage2d

Avg bet$106

Trades / day14.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	Yes	45¢	34¢	$150	$115	−$35 (-23%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$100	$106	+$6 (+6%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Yes	17¢	14¢	$100	$82	−$18 (-18%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$100	$77	−$23 (-23%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$100	$61	−$39 (-39%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Yes	24¢	20¢	$43	$38	−$6 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$203	+$214	+105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$302	−$300	-99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 17	$119	−$116	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$203	−$200	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$203	+$272	+134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$215	+$624	+291%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$203	+$189	+93%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$31	−$30	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$153	1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	24¢	$44	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	7¢	$103	4h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	36h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	36h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	36h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	36h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$302	36h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	17¢	$119	45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$203	46h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	46h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$476	46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$839	46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$203	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$215	2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$392	2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$203	2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	5¢	$31	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $479.74 · official $479.77 (match) · 33 history records