Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4af…8328 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$588 (+29%) realized +$588 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$588
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.7% +7.4% 83% 83% +17.1%
≤30d 6 +18.7% +7.4% 83% 83% +17.1%
≤90d 6 +18.7% +7.4% 83% 83% +17.1%
all 6 +18.7% +7.4% 83% 83% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 83% +17.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 83% +5.9%
15% -12.2% 50% -4.3%
20% -20.8% 17% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$200 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$588
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 30 $516 +$281 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 30 $412 +$184 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 30 $458 +$141 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 30 $307 +$147 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $102 +$35 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $699 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $491 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $599 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $454 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records