Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa4a8…e3e0 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$6
politics 17% −$3
sports 7% −$5
culture 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +0.8% -8.8% 12% 10% -9.6%
all 108 +0.8% -8.8% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 9% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 9% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 8% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage93d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 49¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $158 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $346 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $322 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $230 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $116 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $237 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $118 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $116 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $333 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $425 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $409 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $332 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 10h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $15 26h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $15 31h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $9 39h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $24 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 19d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.58 · official $92.58 (match) · 333 history records