Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa4a6…c03b sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$38 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$186
other 15% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +10.3% -0.2% 66% 62% -1.7%
≤30d 32 +10.3% -0.2% 66% 62% -1.7%
≤90d 32 +10.3% -0.2% 66% 62% -1.7%
all 32 +10.3% -0.2% 66% 62% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 62% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 50% -11.1%
15% -18.4% 47% -19.7%
20% -26.4% 31% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$34 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage3d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Over 70¢ 91¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 57¢ 61¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 21¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$5 +17%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$14 +45%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 +$11 +53%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$17 +82%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $31 +$50 +165%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $121 +$60 +49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$1 -4%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $122 −$45 -37%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Will Panama win on 2026- Jun 24 $20 +$13 +62%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$7 +31%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $37 +$6 +17%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$57 +112%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Norway Jun 23 $10 +$17 +170%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Algeria (- Jun 23 $101 +$70 +69%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $148 +$67 +45%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$9 +43%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $45 +$31 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $20 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 12¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $35 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 94¢ $44 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $31 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 85¢ $30 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 45¢ $22 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $20 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 64¢ $30 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 41¢ $20 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $30 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 20h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 20h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 22h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $81 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $181 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $51 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $20 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 34¢ $20 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 69¢ $101 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY 64¢ $20 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 34¢ $20 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 37¢ $31 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.36 · official $78.36 (match) · 69 history records