Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A4 0xa4a6…a9ce crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%35W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$112
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.1% -6.7% 59% 48% -14.4%
≤30d 58 +11.4% +0.8% 60% 53% -9.9%
≤90d 58 +11.4% +0.8% 60% 53% -9.9%
all 58 +11.4% +0.8% 60% 53% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 53% -9.9%
10% -8.9% 47% -18.5%
15% -17.7% 38% -26.4%
20% -25.8% 22% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses35 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage13d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$24 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $82 −$43 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$47 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $205 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $211 −$99 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$111 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$46 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $81 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $18 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$11 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$9 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $28 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $55 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records