Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A4 0xa4a4…0eda crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%41W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$12
crypto 8% +$1
tech 2% $0
other 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 +0.0% -9.5% 73% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses41 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage545d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Apr 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Connor McDavid win the Hart Trophy? Apr 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $5,836 −$12 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 24-31? Feb 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland? Feb 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Feb 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Jan 21 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 31d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 149d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 149d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $29 150d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 180d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 181d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $36 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $18 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $23 212d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 100¢ $16 241d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 243d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $13 272d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 301d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 301d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $25 335d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $7 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.04 · official $48.04 (match) · 116 history records