Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4a3…155f crypto 1125 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (156 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$544 (+5%) realized +$544 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate45%504W / 621L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day156.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$16
14 days−$130
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (156 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 -0.8% -10.2% 40% 24% -10.3%
≤30d 1125 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 26% -11.4%
≤90d 1125 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 26% -11.4%
all 1125 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 26% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover156.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 26% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 16% -19.8%
15% -27.0% 8% -27.6%
20% -34.1% 4% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$544
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses504 / 621
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1125 / 1125
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day156.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1125 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records