Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa4a2…b646 other 377 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$810 (+9%) realized +$810 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%87W / 275L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$745
7 days+$657
14 days+$851
30 days+$647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$478
sports 32% +$566
world 5% −$369
crypto 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -8.9% -17.6% 29% 28% +2.9%
≤30d 360 -12.7% -21.0% 24% 24% -2.0%
≤90d 362 -12.8% -21.1% 24% 24% -2.0%
all 362 -12.8% -21.1% 24% 24% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 24% -2.0%
10% -28.6% 23% -11.4%
15% -35.5% 23% -19.9%
20% -41.8% 21% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$18 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$810
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses87 / 275
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)362 / 377
History coverage30d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 362 Trades
no open positions (244 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$33 -65%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $28 −$27 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $44 +$131 +298%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $137 +$123 +90%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $17 +$8 +46%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $140 −$132 -94%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $205 +$870 +424%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $206 −$201 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $306 +$764 +249%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$29 +284%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +169%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $154 −$150 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $154 +$1,208 +784%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $41 −$11 -28%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$10 +197%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$54 +523%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 16m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? AND Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Hai BUY 3¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? AND Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Hai BUY 3¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Hai BUY 4¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Hai BUY 4¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 2 BUY 4¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 2 BUY 3¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 2 BUY 4¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 2 BUY 3¢ $26 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 2 BUY 4¢ $23 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? AND Exact Score: United States 2 BUY 3¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 6¢ $31 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 4¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 5¢ $31 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 5¢ $41 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 3¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 4¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 70¢ $175 30h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $44 30h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Cz BUY 4¢ $15 31h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Cz BUY 4¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Cz BUY 4¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Cz BUY 4¢ $21 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $130.00 · 554 history records