Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A4 0xa49e…4825 crypto 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$419 (+5%) realized +$419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%76W / 26L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$4
14 days−$45
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$192
sports 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.6% -19.1% 57% 57% -7.1%
≤30d 102 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 48% -7.4%
≤90d 102 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 48% -7.4%
all 102 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 48% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 48% -7.4%
10% -20.1% 28% -16.3%
15% -27.8% 19% -24.4%
20% -34.9% 11% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses76 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage26d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$25 +50%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 Jun 27 $25 +$21 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$16 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $1,023 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $1,001 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $1,024 +$71 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $83 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $82 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $47 +$35 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $201 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $177 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $76 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$23 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$19 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $44 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $112 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 06 $24 −$19 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $47 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $24 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 06 $72 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $34 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 06 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $27 +$16 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 06 $28 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 06 $24 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $56 −$17 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $44 −$25 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $56 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $53 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $46 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 SELL 99¢ $46 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-2 BUY 53¢ $25 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 59¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $24 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $24 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1,038 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $615 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $408 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,007 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records