Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa49c…3bb4
crypto · 222 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$396 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$396 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses132 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage17d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 222 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$297
14 days−$399
30 days−$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$11 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$393
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $30 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $32 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -7.9% -16.7% 69% 49% -18.3%
≤30d 222 -13.0% -21.3% 59% 43% -17.8%
≤90d 222 -13.0% -21.3% 59% 43% -17.8%
all 222 -13.0% -21.3% 59% 43% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 43% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 15% -25.6%
15% -35.7% 7% -32.8%
20% -42.0% 5% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 518 history records