Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa497…847c sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$96 (+7%) realized +$98 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$51
other 47% +$80
crypto 4% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -7.1% -16.0% 35% 35% -3.0%
≤30d 49 -7.1% -16.0% 35% 35% -3.0%
≤90d 49 -7.1% -16.0% 35% 35% -3.0%
all 49 -7.1% -16.0% 35% 35% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 35% -3.0%
10% -24.0% 35% -12.3%
15% -31.3% 33% -20.7%
20% -38.1% 33% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$17 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 54¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$48 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +85%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$78 +254%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$13 -53%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$63 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$50 +246%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$27 +53%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +139%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $25 −$19 -78%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$20 +32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $80 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $61 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $31 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $40 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 13h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 15h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 19¢ $19 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $51 39h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $41 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $19 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $23 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $31 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $14 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.07 · official $178.07 (match) · 96 history records