Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa496…0f5a other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,266 (-15%) realized −$993 · open −$273
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,352
7 days−$1,352
14 days−$1,352
30 days−$1,352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$588
sports 46% −$2,100
weather 2% +$24
politics 1% +$49
crypto 1% −$99
culture 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.9% -14.9% 75% 25% -52.8%
≤30d 4 -5.9% -14.9% 75% 25% -52.8%
≤90d 8 -1.6% -10.9% 50% 25% -47.2%
all 24 -16.1% -24.1% 42% 29% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 29% -41.0%
10% -31.4% 29% -46.7%
15% -38.0% 17% -51.8%
20% -44.1% 12% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$240 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$767
Realized−$993
Unrealized−$273
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage264d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 46¢ $561 $390 −$172 (-31%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ $132 $304 +$172 (+131%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $80 $30 −$50 (-62%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $217 $27 −$190 (-88%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $50 $16 −$34 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,538 −$1,525 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $213 +$155 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $388 +$7 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $700 +$11 +2%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $194 −$48 -25%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $194 −$39 -20%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $287 −$82 -29%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $50 +$42 +85%
OKX IPO in 2026? Jan 30 $422 −$83 -20%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Jan 30 $243 −$44 -18%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jan 29 $260 −$227 -87%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 29 $261 −$39 -15%
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $118 +$36 +31%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $808 +$283 +35%
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 25 $633 −$633 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $100 +$49 +49%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $100 +$212 +212%
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31 Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on Jan Jan 23 $55 +$18 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on Jan Jan 22 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 22 $100 −$99 -99%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 18 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Sep 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $567 23m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,538 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $368 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $396 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $711 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $700 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $388 2h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $213 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $223 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $146 62d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $155 62d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $170 62d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $205 62d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 70d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $194 73d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $194 73d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $194 73d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $194 73d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 31¢ $92 74d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $82 85d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $80 85d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $50 85d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 85d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $50 85d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $339 141d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL Yes $199 141d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 141d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? SELL Yes $33 141d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $166 141d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? SELL No 78¢ $60 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.02 · official $808.90 · 75 history records