Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa492…adbe crypto 1637 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,432 (-59%) realized −$10,447 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%647W / 980L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$351
other 20% −$1,194
sports 17% −$101
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 48% -22.3%
≤30d 1627 -3.9% -13.1% 40% 38% -18.4%
≤90d 1627 -3.9% -13.1% 40% 38% -18.4%
all 1627 -3.9% -13.1% 40% 38% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 38% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 38% -26.2%
15% -29.0% 37% -33.3%
20% -35.9% 37% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized−$10,447
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses647 / 980
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1627 / 1637
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1627 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 75¢ 100¢ $200 $265 +$65 (+32%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 53¢ 99¢ $50 $94 +$44 (+87%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $38 −$52 (-58%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $48 $25 −$23 (-48%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-68%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 52¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 21 $119 +$7 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $122 −$122 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 21 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $153 −$153 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$46 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$31 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$37 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$36 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 +$46 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $130 +$64 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$30 +96%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $102 −$92 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$31 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$24 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 20m
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 26¢ $13 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $38 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $101 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $51 1h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 26¢ $112 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $101 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $33 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 12h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 18¢ $20 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 16¢ $21 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $29 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 44¢ $81 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 43¢ $51 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $25 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.98 · official $430.58 (match) · 3500 history records