Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa48a…ef6f other 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$157 (+0%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate82%410W / 89L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$51
14 days+$52
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$23
tech 7% +$59
crypto 6% −$43
weather 3% +$13
politics 1% +$3
culture 1% +$1
sports 1% +$123
finance 0% +$1
world 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -12.7% -21.0% 47% 35% -5.1%
≤30d 75 -6.4% -15.3% 61% 35% -4.7%
≤90d 191 -0.4% -9.9% 83% 17% -9.0%
all 499 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses410 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)499 / 499
History coverage184d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 499 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $44 −$36 -84%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $48 +$20 +41%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $49 +$55 +112%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $49 −$36 -74%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$5 +57%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $65 +$12 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 −$18 -37%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 +$10 +47%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$8 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $50 +$67 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 +$60 +123%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$14 -74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 +$36 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 +$43 +138%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $23 +$25 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-05-10? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Over $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $68 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 97¢ $104 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $44 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $48 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $49 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $13 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $49 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $10 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $10 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 80¢ $50 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 80¢ $32 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 81¢ $18 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 71¢ $9 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 67¢ $10 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $8 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 86¢ $5 43h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 86¢ $10 43h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $60 44h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 32¢ $50 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $30 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 88¢ $33 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $9 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $22 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1259 history records