Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa489…b846 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$498 (-64%) realized −$497 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$156
world 37% −$285
crypto 16% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +34.6% +21.8% 17% 17% -76.4%
≤30d 6 +34.6% +21.8% 17% 17% -76.4%
≤90d 26 -23.9% -31.2% 19% 19% -88.5%
all 26 -23.9% -31.2% 19% 19% -88.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 19% -88.5%
10% -37.8% 19% -89.6%
15% -43.8% 19% -90.6%
20% -49.3% 15% -91.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$26 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$497
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage75d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $210 $209 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$15 +707%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 08 $11 −$10 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 07 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 06 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$17 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 06 $4 +$12 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $212 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $59 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 61d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Spirit 25¢ $99 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $100 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $8 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 1¢ $100 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $7 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $9 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $9 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $7 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.52 · official $208.52 (match) · 43 history records