Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa488…7a0e world 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,033 (-8%) realized −$6,074 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%34W / 22L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,252per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$62
14 days−$11,147
30 days−$6,896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$7,522
crypto 15% +$1,203
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.4% -6.5% 50% 50% +2.3%
≤30d 25 -23.0% -30.3% 56% 24% -22.9%
≤90d 56 -6.8% -15.7% 61% 30% -17.6%
all 56 -6.8% -15.7% 61% 30% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 30% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 11% -25.5%
15% -31.1% 7% -32.7%
20% -37.9% 4% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,403) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$594 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized−$6,074
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses34 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage85d
Avg bet$1,252
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $415 $456 +$41 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 28 $46 −$4 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $425 +$66 +15%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2,043 −$1,763 -86%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 18 $1,894 −$502 -26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 18 $7,416 −$7,416 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $344 +$15 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4,507 +$152 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $326 +$11 +3%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $337 −$9 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,734 −$1,698 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $402 +$44 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 10 $706 +$38 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $967 +$20 +2%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 07 $390 +$55 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $4,518 +$191 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 05 $898 +$70 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10,434 +$1,263 +12%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 20, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 23, 2026? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 18, 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -94%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$5 -81%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 21, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,536 +$2,619 +31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $553 +$29 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $2,968 −$1,271 -43%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 28 $855 −$264 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,403 +$497 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $1,175 −$5 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4,172 +$705 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $1,690 +$300 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $1,092 +$107 +10%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 17, 2026? May 10 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $1,372 −$28 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $1,126 +$74 +6%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 08 $416 −$2 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $1,948 +$46 +2%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 08 $440 +$15 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 06 $622 +$38 +6%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 19, 2026? May 05 $6 +$5 +82%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026? May 05 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 05 $50 +$20 +40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 04 $400 −$5 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $324 +$36 +11%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 01 $2,530 +$95 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $316 +$14 +4%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 28 $81 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $568 +$79 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $238 +$42 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $42 31m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $415 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $461 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $15 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $410 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $266 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $38 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $343 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $339 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $337 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $73 13d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $253 13d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 82¢ $328 13d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $337 13d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 13d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 13d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $455.71 · official $455.71 (match) · 929 history records