Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa488…8f89 crypto 332 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-2%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%218W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +10.2% -0.3% 50% 43% -8.9%
≤30d 42 +10.2% -0.3% 50% 43% -8.9%
≤90d 42 +10.2% -0.3% 50% 43% -8.9%
all 332 -9.1% -17.8% 66% 50% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 50% -6.7%
10% -25.6% 27% -15.6%
15% -32.8% 13% -23.8%
20% -39.4% 5% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses218 / 114
Open positions0
Markets (closed)332 / 332
History coverage254d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 332 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +202%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9AM ET Feb 17 $17 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6AM ET Feb 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4AM ET Feb 17 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3AM ET Feb 17 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2AM ET Feb 17 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1AM ET Feb 17 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11PM ET Feb 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3070 history records