Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A4 0xa486…25d4 sports 891 markets active 1d ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$102,295 (+22%) realized +$102,295 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%831W / 60L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$575est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$9,814
other 32% +$1,519
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 1% -8.0%
≤30d 449 +8.9% -1.5% 95% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 891 +5.2% -4.8% 93% 5% -7.3%
all 891 +5.2% -4.8% 93% 5% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 5% -7.3%
10% -13.9% 4% -16.2%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 4% -24.3%
20% -29.9% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$100 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$102,295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses831 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$575
Open positions0
Markets (closed)891 / 891
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$522
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 891 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Sinclair (-1.5) vs Tange (+1.5) Jun 16 $119 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $481 +$20 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Parma (Doubles): Passaro/Vasami vs Bondioli/Caniato Jun 15 $395 +$5 +1%
Set Handicap: Johnson/Zielinski (-1.5) vs Lehecka/Mensik (+1.5) Jun 15 $303 +$9 +3%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielins Jun 15 $122 +$1 +1%
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $329 +$11 +3%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 15 $114 +$1 +1%
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $259 +$9 +3%
Set Handicap: Lehecka/Mensik (-1.5) vs Johnson/Zielinski (+1.5) Jun 15 $309 +$10 +3%
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $339 +$10 +3%
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $259 +$9 +3%
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $505 +$11 +2%
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $466 +$10 +2%
Set 2 Winner: Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 15 $252 +$3 +1%
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $438 +$13 +3%
Set Handicap: Cash/Glasspool (-1.5) vs Cerundolo/Nakashima (+1.5) Jun 15 $415 +$11 +3%
Cerundolo/Nakashima vs. Cash/Glasspool: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $367 +$9 +2%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo/Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cash/Glasspool (+1.5) Jun 15 $343 +$8 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 15 $332 +$9 +3%
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $342 +$10 +3%
Cerundolo/Nakashima vs. Cash/Glasspool: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $333 +$8 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo/Nakashima vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 15 $232 +$6 +3%
ITF Casablanca: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Luna Vujovic Jun 14 $152 +$7 +5%
Andreescu vs. Mazdrashki: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $84 +$1 +1%
Andreescu vs. Mazdrashki: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $84 +$1 +1%
Gokpinar vs. Mckennon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $77 +$1 +1%
Gokpinar vs. Mckennon: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $77 +$1 +1%
Gokpinar vs. Mckennon: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $72 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Mckennon (-1.5) vs Gokpinar (+1.5) Jun 13 $48 $0 +1%
Haydar Cem Gokpinar vs. Maxwell Mckennon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $62 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Knutson (-1.5) vs Kubka (+1.5) Jun 13 $73 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Gokpinar vs Mckennon Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Honda vs. Magadan: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $75 +$1 +1%
Honda vs. Magadan: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $75 +$1 +1%
Honda vs. Magadan: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $75 +$1 +1%
Dellavedova vs. Oh: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $83 +$1 +1%
Dellavedova vs. Oh: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $83 +$1 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Huergo/Radisic vs Gorgodze/Karamoko Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Rivet vs Tabacco Jun 12 $59 +$1 +1%
Huergo/Radisic vs. Gorgodze/Karamoko: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $444 +$23 +5%
Huergo/Radisic vs. Gorgodze/Karamoko: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $444 +$23 +5%
Fierros vs. Bidan: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Fierros vs. Bidan: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
Fierros vs. Bidan: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
Contri vs. Durand: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $52 +$1 +1%
Contri vs. Durand: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $52 +$1 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Contri vs Durand Jun 12 $52 +$1 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Orlov vs Mujakic Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Orlov vs. Mujakic: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $119 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Sinclair (-1.5) vs Tange (+1.5) BUY Tange 99¢ $119 29h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Spirit Academy 50¢ $331 41h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Spirit Academy 50¢ $10 44h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Spirit Academy 50¢ $160 44h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 48¢ $1 45h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 48¢ $166 45h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 48¢ $105 45h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 48¢ $105 45h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 48¢ $105 45h
Set 2 Winner: Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus BUY Bhambri/Venus 99¢ $54 47h
Parma (Doubles): Passaro/Vasami vs Bondioli/Caniato BUY Bondioli/Caniato 99¢ $99 2d
Parma (Doubles): Passaro/Vasami vs Bondioli/Caniato BUY Bondioli/Caniato 99¢ $99 2d
Parma (Doubles): Passaro/Vasami vs Bondioli/Caniato BUY Bondioli/Caniato 99¢ $20 2d
Parma (Doubles): Passaro/Vasami vs Bondioli/Caniato BUY Bondioli/Caniato 98¢ $177 2d
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski BUY Johnson/Zielinski 99¢ $114 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 97¢ $323 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 97¢ $248 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 97¢ $248 2d
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielins BUY Yes 99¢ $122 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 94¢ $16 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 97¢ $313 2d
Set Handicap: Johnson/Zielinski (-1.5) vs Lehecka/Mensik (+1.5) BUY Lehecka/Mensik 97¢ $292 2d
Set Handicap: Lehecka/Mensik (-1.5) vs Johnson/Zielinski (+1.5) BUY Johnson/Zielinski 97¢ $292 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 89¢ $11 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 89¢ $11 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 10¢ $0 2d
Lehecka/Mensik vs. Johnson/Zielinski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 89¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records