Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A4 0xa486…dee2 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$81 (+6%) realized +$75 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate50%8W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$79per market

Trades / day15.9pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-9.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-0.4%	-9.9%	50%	44%	-10.0%
≤30d	16	-0.4%	-9.9%	50%	44%	-10.0%
≤90d	16	-0.4%	-9.9%	50%	44%	-10.0%
all	16	-0.4%	-9.9%	50%	44%	-10.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.9%	44%	-10.0%
10%	-18.5%	38%	-18.6%
15%	-26.4%	25%	-26.5%
20%	-33.6%	12%	-33.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late -20% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$24 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.97 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$240

Realized+$75

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses8 / 8

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage2d

Avg bet$79

Trades / day15.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5	Under	96¢	98¢	$234	$240	+$6 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$51	−$27	-52%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$46	−$29	-63%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$50	+$20	+40%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$172	+$76	+44%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$126	−$83	-66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$75	−$3	-4%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$82	−$28	-34%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$50	−$11	-22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$20	$0	-1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$20	−$9	-46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$101	+$32	+31%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$101	+$23	+23%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$10	+$6	+62%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$10	+$6	+59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$107	+$4	+4%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$90	+$17	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	30¢	$24	7m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	96¢	$234	7m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5	SELL Over	14¢	$17	11m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	99¢	$71	19m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	70¢	$50	26m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	61¢	$51	27m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$247	32m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5	BUY Over	36¢	$46	58m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	11¢	$43	59m
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$172	1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	30¢	$126	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	88¢	$73	1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	42¢	$54	1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	63¢	$39	1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	54¢	$39	1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	61¢	$43	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	57¢	$20	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	91¢	$75	1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$50	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$20	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	44¢	$11	26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$20	27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	98¢	$132	29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	74¢	$101	29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$124	29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	80¢	$101	29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$16	30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$10	30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.67 · official $239.67 (match) · 34 history records