Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa47e…3a82
world · 30 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage247d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 0 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 94¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $24 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $54 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $7 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? Oct 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brian Rast win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $4 $0 +6%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% $0
politics 14% −$2
other 13% $0
sports 9% $0
finance 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $37 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $22 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $49 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $54 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $32 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $30 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $19 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $49 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $49 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $24 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 42¢ $19 79d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 48¢ $22 203d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 204d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 204d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $15 204d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 234d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $7 234d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $7 234d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 234d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 25% 0% -10.4%
all 30 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 71 history records