trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 33% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 50% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 46% | 0% | -8.9% |
| all | 29 | -3.1% | -12.3% | 48% | 3% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.3% | 3% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -20.7% | 3% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -35.4% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 19 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $25 | +$1 | +3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $94 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $31 | +$1 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 24 | $13 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 23 | $29 | +$1 | +3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 20 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jul 03 | $8 | −$1 | -16% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? | May 05 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 20 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Mar 12 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-02-26? | Mar 03 | $8 | +$3 | +32% |
| Stars vs. Blue Jackets | Feb 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Penn State vs. Indiana | Feb 25 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F | Feb 25 | $9 | −$1 | -12% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) | Feb 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| VCU vs. Richmond | Feb 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Feb 25 | $9 | $0 | +0% |