Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa470…616b politics 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized −$10 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$37
politics 31% +$62
world 19% −$9
tech 6% +$2
crypto 5% +$13
sports 4% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 11 -19.7% -27.4% 55% 36% -10.8%
≤90d 13 -14.2% -22.3% 62% 38% -10.5%
all 13 -14.2% -22.3% 62% 38% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 38% -10.5%
10% -29.8% 23% -19.1%
15% -36.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -42.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$26 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$2,249
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions39
Markets (closed)13 / 52
History coverage220d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $245 $267 +$22 (+9%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $252 $261 +$9 (+4%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 94¢ 93¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $149 $189 +$39 (+26%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 75¢ 83¢ $131 $145 +$14 (+11%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 88¢ 88¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $119 $102 −$17 (-14%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 61¢ 76¢ $83 $102 +$19 (+24%)
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $76 $98 +$22 (+29%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? No 51¢ 58¢ $66 $75 +$9 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 60¢ 61¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $55 $52 −$4 (-7%)
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $37 $46 +$9 (+24%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $46 $42 −$5 (-10%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 58¢ 13¢ $119 $27 −$92 (-78%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes $22 $18 −$4 (-20%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $11 $16 +$5 (+43%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$1 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $156 +$20 +13%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $184 +$37 +20%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 07 $77 +$22 +29%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $43 −$43 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $140 +$10 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 02 $72 −$72 -99%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $56 +$5 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $34 −$6 -19%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Champions May 09 $9 +$2 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $9 1h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 89¢ $72 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $75 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 2h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $67 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 88¢ $38 2h
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio BUY Yes 69¢ $98 2h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $73 2h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 88¢ $68 2h
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 62¢ $22 3d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 3d
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $76 5d
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 94¢ $200 6d
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 80¢ $176 7d
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 78¢ $34 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 80¢ $69 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 70¢ $26 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 62¢ $28 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $7 7d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $11 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 7d
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,248.56 · official $2,248.64 (match) · 156 history records