Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa46e…e566 other 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 44L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$3
world 29% −$3
other 16% +$2
sports 14% +$10
tech 1% +$3
crypto 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -1.6% -10.9% 44% 0% -9.5%
all 79 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage485d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $1,211 +$1 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $170 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $81 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $179 +$8 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $154 +$5 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $164 −$14 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $169 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $138 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $190 +$4 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$4 -46%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $69 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $63 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,131 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,147 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $20 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? May 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? May 22 $20 $0 -2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 45 and 49 seats? May 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $4 $0 +2%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania May 07 $16 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $169 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $169 2h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $6 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $15 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $12 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $9 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $170 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $170 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $0 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $81 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $36 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $115 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $144 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $63 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $56 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $138 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $138 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $150 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $164 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $96 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $84 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records