Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa469…42a7 sports 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 719d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$301 (-2%) realized −$306 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%41W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$808
7 days+$761
14 days+$761
30 days+$761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$322
other 13% −$44
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +15.8% +4.8% 44% 44% +8.9%
≤30d 48 +15.8% +4.8% 44% 44% +8.9%
≤90d 67 +11.9% +1.2% 45% 43% +4.7%
all 110 -1.8% -11.2% 37% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 34% -11.4%
10% -19.7% 32% -19.8%
15% -27.4% 27% -27.6%
20% -34.6% 24% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$51 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

719d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses41 / 69
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage719d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Team Resilience 73¢ 100¢ $36 $50 +$13 (+37%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 60¢ 44¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $145 +$20 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$40 +416%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$6 -27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $33 −$10 -29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $89 +$211 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $144 +$167 +116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $213 +$107 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $158 +$30 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $52 +$248 +474%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $93 +$97 +104%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 −$9 -27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $148 +$115 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $138 +$86 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $65 −$64 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$21 -51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $74 −$39 -53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $186 −$32 -17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $33 −$11 -32%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $28 −$22 -77%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 −$11 -23%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $97 +$103 +105%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $61 +$50 +83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$21 -20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$6 -11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $113 −$111 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $88 −$17 -20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $249 −$41 -17%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$23 +59%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$26 +154%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $68 +$21 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $115 +$85 +74%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $198 −$23 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$66 -65%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $150 +$52 +35%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$35 -57%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $81 −$59 -73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $64 +$15 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $208 +$202 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $264 −$99 -37%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$86 -84%
CD Palestino vs. CD Concepción: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $67 −$7 -10%
Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $224 −$87 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 60¢ $22 4m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 60¢ $11 4m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 73¢ $36 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 32¢ $16 5h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 42¢ $21 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $9 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $26 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 41¢ $40 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 54¢ $53 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $12 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 24¢ $23 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $33 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $0 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 31¢ $32 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $57 14h
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 16h
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $93 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 9¢ $88 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 10¢ $52 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 10¢ $34 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $52 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $89 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $93 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.00 · official $74.00 (match) · 375 history records