Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa462…439e world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$1
other 14% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 42% 8% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 6% -9.4%
all 30 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -9.4%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage444d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 61¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $90 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $104 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $94 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $4 $0 -5%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in March? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or below on April 2? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $46 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $46 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $46 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $45 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.36 · official $46.36 (match) · 96 history records