Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa45f…4f97
other · 102 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$441 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$772 · open +$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,000
Realized−$772
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses58 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions49
Markets (closed)114 / 102
History coverage58d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 49 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$83
14 days−$74
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,006 $1,004 −$2 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $776 $765 −$11 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $27 +$3 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+49%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $20 −$4 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $2 $17 +$15 (+893%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $2 $16 +$14 (+863%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+623%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+479%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+371%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$6 (+347%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+209%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+200%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $185 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $603 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $809 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,239 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $295 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,098 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $499 $0 +0%
Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch May 30 $33 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $496 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $499 $0 +0%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 28 $16 −$14 -84%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.0B? May 28 $18 −$1 -5%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el May 28 $15 $0 -2%
Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el May 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? May 27 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B? May 27 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$155
crypto 19% +$10
finance 11% +$3
sports 4% −$523
world 2% +$5
politics 1% +$4
economics 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $777 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,006 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $604 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 29h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 35h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 36h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 36h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 37h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 38h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $185 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $603 40h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 46h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 46h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 46h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $549 46h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $798 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $798 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $797 4d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $798 4d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $797 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -76.4% -78.6% 24% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 67 -39.4% -45.2% 48% 1% -10.5%
≤90d 114 -33.3% -39.6% 51% 7% -12.6%
all 114 -33.3% -39.6% 51% 7% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 7% -12.6%
10% -45.4% 6% -20.9%
15% -50.7% 4% -28.6%
20% -55.5% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,999.97 · official $1,999.97 (match) · 351 history records