Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa45b…9082 other 1153 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1151W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$15
sports 46% +$6
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 265 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 444 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1065 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 1152 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×238.68 per $1 lost it wins $238.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1151 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1152 / 1153
History coverage96d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? Under 100¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC: Second half draw? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kalshi: Trade the Cup be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Almeida/Escurra vs. Britez/Nunez: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Eldor Shomurodov: 2+ shots Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
WTT - Women's Singles: Man Kuai vs Manika Batra Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: X-CAST (-1.5) vs DRX Academy (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Tepmahc vs. Alhogbani: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Curmi (-1.5) vs Oz (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Hipfl vs. Sperle: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Yilmaz (-1.5) vs Kumar (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Blaydes vs Inchauspe Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-9.5) vs KOLESIE (+9.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Petkovic vs. Lemire: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Colombo vs. Rodenas: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Blaydes vs. Inchauspe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Dietrich vs. Burdet: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Mashtakov vs. Jadoun: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Laskevich vs. Matsuda: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Alberto Lim vs. Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Alexis Vega: 1+ shots on target Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Santiago Giménez: 4+ goals + assists Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Armando González: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Oh Hyeongyu: 1+ goals + assists Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Son Heungmin: 3+ shots on target Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Wydad Athletic Club to score first vs. FathUnionSport? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ shots on target Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Akram Afif: 3+ shots Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals + assists Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Promise David: 2+ shots on target Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Jonathan David: 1+ shots Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Tofant vs. Yang: Total Games O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Stuart Fairchild: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Remo Freuler: 2+ assists Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $390? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 15 above $370? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Thapelo Maseko: 1+ shots on target Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Vladimír Darida: 3+ shots Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 100¢ $5 7m
Almeida/Escurra vs. Britez/Nunez: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 2h
Eldor Shomurodov: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC: Second half draw? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will Kalshi: Trade the Cup be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on BUY Yes 99¢ $4 3h
Tepmahc vs. Alhogbani: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 7h
WTT - Women's Singles: Man Kuai vs Manika Batra BUY Kuai 100¢ $4 7h
Set Handicap: Curmi (-1.5) vs Oz (+1.5) BUY Oz 100¢ $5 7h
Hipfl vs. Sperle: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 7h
Map Handicap: X-CAST (-1.5) vs DRX Academy (+1.5) BUY DRX Academy 100¢ $5 7h
Set Handicap: Yilmaz (-1.5) vs Kumar (+1.5) BUY Yilmaz 100¢ $5 8h
Set 2 Winner: Blaydes vs Inchauspe BUY Blaydes 100¢ $4 8h
Petkovic vs. Lemire: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 9h
Colombo vs. Rodenas: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 9h
Blaydes vs. Inchauspe: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 9h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-9.5) vs KOLESIE (+9.5) BUY KOLESIE 100¢ $5 9h
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 BUY EDward Gaming 100¢ $5 10h
Mashtakov vs. Jadoun: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 10h
Dietrich vs. Burdet: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 10h
Laskevich vs. Matsuda: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? BUY Under 100¢ $5 14h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 100¢ $5 14h
Alberto Lim vs. Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 15h
Son Heungmin: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Santiago Giménez: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $4 16h
Alexis Vega: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Oh Hyeongyu: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Armando González: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.50 (match) · 2566 history records