Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa45b…8c22 crypto 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%57W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$225
other 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +38.0% +24.9% 36% 31% -13.9%
≤30d 195 -26.5% -33.5% 29% 26% -33.5%
≤90d 195 -26.5% -33.5% 29% 26% -33.5%
all 195 -26.5% -33.5% 29% 26% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.5% 26% -33.5%
10% ← realistic here -39.8% 23% -39.8%
15% -45.7% 17% -45.6%
20% -51.0% 14% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses57 / 138
Open positions2
Markets (closed)195 / 197
History coverage29d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 51¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$13 +592%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$11 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$13 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$44 +380%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$24 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 29 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 29 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 29 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $1 +$2 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.19 · official $1.92 (match) · 723 history records