Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa45a…02e5 sports 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$424 (+10%) realized +$357 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%53W / 90L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$218
14 days+$380
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$105
other 18% +$276
world 1% +$70
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +19.1% +7.7% 32% 32% +0.3%
≤30d 143 +16.1% +5.0% 37% 36% +0.1%
≤90d 143 +16.1% +5.0% 37% 36% +0.1%
all 143 +16.1% +5.0% 37% 36% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 36% +0.1%
10% -5.0% 34% -9.5%
15% -14.2% 34% -18.3%
20% -22.6% 29% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$16 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$362
Realized+$357
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses53 / 90
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)143 / 150
History coverage14d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Under 74¢ 99¢ $80 $107 +$27 (+34%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 67¢ 90¢ $65 $88 +$23 (+35%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Under 90¢ 100¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+11%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Yes 10¢ 38¢ $10 $38 +$28 (+280%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 62¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 44¢ 46¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 51¢ 8¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $71 +$36 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $79 +$68 +86%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $45 +$10 +23%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $86 +$77 +89%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $21 +$50 +244%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$16 -63%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $26 −$13 -51%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $151 +$63 +41%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 24 $200 −$3 -2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $62 −$62 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $56 +$6 +11%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $39 +$17 +43%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 −$1 -3%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -21%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 +$26 +101%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 +$85 +826%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 +$25 +70%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 22 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 +$92 +1115%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $78 +$12 +16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $121 +$60 +50%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $10 +$27 +262%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$20 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $55 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $81 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $35 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 44¢ $25 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 67¢ $66 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 21h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 21h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $107 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $56 21h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 90¢ $163 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $79 21h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $26 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 22h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 14¢ $13 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 22h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 65¢ $71 23h
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $26 23h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $45 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 58¢ $61 24h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $214 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 50¢ $70 24h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $151 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Canada 91¢ $197 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Canada 92¢ $200 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.83 · official $361.83 (match) · 223 history records