Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A4 0xa459…7f4f world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%37W / 55L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$12
sports 34% −$3
other 14% −$1
politics 13% +$3
economics 2% +$8
finance 2% −$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 -1.6% -10.9% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 42 +47.3% +33.3% 31% 5% -9.5%
all 92 +21.6% +10.1% 40% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -0.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -10.1% 1% -26.0%
20% -18.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses37 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage485d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 77¢ 94¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $41 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $192 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $162 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $95 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $110 −$5 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $229 +$7 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $203 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $306 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $93 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $198 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $196 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $93 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 22 $102 −$10 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $190 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $85 +$20 +23%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 18 $330 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $96 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $87 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $1,219 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $992 −$3 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $276 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $994 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $994 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $228 +$8 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $97 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $106 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $106 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $106 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $106 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $97 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $97 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $67 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $96 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $95 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $84 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $68 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $96 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $96 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $68 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $96 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $96 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.59 · official $96.01 (match) · 359 history records