Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa452…7f35 crypto 1456 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized −$729 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate83%1223W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day55.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369
7 days−$322
14 days−$436
30 days−$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$280
other 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -16.6% -24.5% 71% 34% -20.3%
≤30d 940 -4.2% -13.3% 81% 39% -12.5%
≤90d 1478 -3.8% -13.0% 83% 37% -12.3%
all 1478 -3.8% -13.0% 83% 37% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 37% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 17% -20.7%
15% -28.9% 9% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 4% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$729
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1223 / 255
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1478 / 1456
History coverage40d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day55.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Up 85¢ 48¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 2AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 2AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 2AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 2PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 6AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 12AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 2AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.26 · official $2.26 (match) · 3500 history records