Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A4 0xa44d…f810 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$35 (+11%) realized +$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.3% +8.0% 100% 100% +8.0%
≤30d 3 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 67% +3.9%
≤90d 3 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 67% +3.9%
all 3 +14.4% +3.5% 100% 67% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 67% +3.9%
10% -6.4% 0% -6.0%
15% -15.5% 0% -15.1%
20% -23.7% 0% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage13d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $82 +$16 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $69 +$13 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $98 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $82 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $69 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $49 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.97 · official $96.97 (match) · 8 history records