Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa44b…adfd
other · 11 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$261 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$201 · open +$99
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$5,131
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$736
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 10 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$201
14 days+$201
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 93¢ 98¢ $2,953 $3,130 +$176 (+6%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs LYON 54¢ 52¢ $1,623 $1,548 −$75 (-5%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Over 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Over 100¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
First Blood in Game 1? Bilibili Gaming 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? Over 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? No 100¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? Over 100¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? Over 100¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 19¢ 18¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,031 +$201 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% +$302
other 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 0% -3.5%
≤30d 1 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 0% -3.5%
≤90d 1 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 0% -3.5%
all 1 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 0% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 0% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -12.8%
15% -21.2% 0% -21.2%
20% -28.9% 0% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,130.61 · official $5,130.61 (match) · 15 history records