Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A4 0xa44a…88ec sports 1014 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,501 (-1%) realized −$2,366 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%574W / 428L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$2,554est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$14
other 13% −$5,977
crypto 1% +$843
world 0% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 54% -11.9%
≤30d 424 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 968 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 55% -11.4%
all 1002 -6.9% -15.8% 57% 55% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 55% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 45% -19.8%
15% -31.2% 37% -27.5%
20% -38.0% 27% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$225 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$2,098
Realized−$2,366
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses574 / 428
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,554
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1002 / 1014
History coverage127d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1002 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 84¢ 80¢ $414 $391 −$22 (-5%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 77¢ 80¢ $277 $288 +$11 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 45¢ 51¢ $201 $228 +$27 (+14%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Brandon Nakashima 73¢ 74¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+1%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Facundo Acosta 65¢ 64¢ $192 $191 −$1 (-1%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Marco Cecchinato 63¢ 62¢ $159 $158 −$1 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Ayla Aksu 68¢ 68¢ $158 $157 −$1 (-1%)
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Petr Brunclik 72¢ 69¢ $152 $147 −$5 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 50¢ 46¢ $152 $142 −$10 (-7%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens 69¢ 54¢ $146 $113 −$33 (-22%)
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Daniel Jade 52¢ 22¢ $174 $74 −$100 (-58%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Xiyu Wang 83¢ 84¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Jun 17 $117 +$82 +70%
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova Jun 17 $85 +$46 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $387 +$195 +50%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $137 +$85 +62%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $152 +$91 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $172 +$39 +23%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $230 +$46 +20%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $95 +$15 +16%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $144 −$144 -100%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $136 −$136 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $209 −$209 -100%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $257 −$257 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $135 −$133 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $154 −$151 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $354 −$349 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $131 −$129 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $215 +$103 +48%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $260 −$256 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $307 +$245 +80%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $207 −$206 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $135 −$134 -99%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $110 +$103 +93%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $454 −$265 -58%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $158 +$49 +31%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $148 +$53 +36%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $192 +$39 +20%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $178 +$106 +60%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $179 +$22 +12%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $553 +$441 +80%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $160 +$90 +56%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Jun 16 $86 +$15 +17%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $347 +$55 +16%
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $188 +$75 +40%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $177 +$23 +13%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $194 +$11 +6%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $88 +$12 +13%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $243 +$59 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $257 −$257 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $422 −$422 -100%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $265 −$265 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $194 +$115 +60%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $177 +$23 +13%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $90 +$11 +12%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $158 +$54 +34%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $112 +$194 +174%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $12 17m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $18 17m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $21 17m
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 65¢ $194 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $89 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 68¢ $159 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 63¢ $161 1h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 52¢ $64 1h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 52¢ $112 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Petr Brunclik 72¢ $154 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 69¢ $148 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $152 1h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet BUY Xiyu Wang 83¢ $9 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $89 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena BUY Ana Giraldi Requena 77¢ $60 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $276 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $135 11h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $154 11h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $354 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $131 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $152 11h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $137 11h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 81¢ $82 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $51 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $209 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 38¢ $54 12h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 38¢ $6 12h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 38¢ $18 12h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 38¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,098.02 · official $2,096.48 (match) · 3349 history records