Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa447…fe26 crypto 1618 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (174 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$942 (+3%) realized +$930 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%979W / 501L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day173.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9,797
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (174 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 680 -35.1% -41.3% 38% 38% -32.7%
≤30d 1480 +6.3% -3.8% 66% 66% +9.3%
≤90d 1480 +6.3% -3.8% 66% 66% +9.3%
all 1480 +6.3% -3.8% 66% 66% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 66% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 65% -1.2%
15% -21.4% 53% -10.7%
20% -29.1% 32% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$930
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses979 / 501
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1480 / 1618
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day173.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 41¢ 98¢ $9 $21 +$12 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.11 · official $5.89 · 3500 history records