Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa445…0286
tech · 24 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$7,667 +1573%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,767 · open −$499
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY tech specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,212
Realized+$6,767
Unrealized−$499
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses92 / 190
Open positions55
Markets (closed)282 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day814.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 55 History 282 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,767
7 days+$6,767
14 days+$6,767
30 days+$6,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $83 $125 +$42 (+50%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $65 $98 +$33 (+50%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $158 $79 −$79 (-50%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $98 $77 −$21 (-21%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $136 $68 −$68 (-50%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $148 $61 −$87 (-59%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $101 $53 −$48 (-48%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $91 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $88 $44 −$44 (-50%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $84 $42 −$42 (-50%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $77 $39 −$39 (-50%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $67 $33 −$33 (-50%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $33 +$17 (+105%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $66 $32 −$34 (-52%)
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $27 +$9 (+50%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $25 +$8 (+50%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $42 $21 −$21 (-50%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $42 $21 −$21 (-50%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 50¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+99%)
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+50%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+21%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $43 $15 −$29 (-66%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $250 before 2026?? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Jun 12 $12 +$40 +340%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 12 $19 +$7 +35%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$19 +1108%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$17 +157%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Jun 12 $56 +$92 +163%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +7%
Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Jun 12 $31 −$29 -91%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Jun 12 $62 +$150 +240%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$13 -44%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$44 -89%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 12 $42 −$21 -50%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$54 -107%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 12 $72 −$16 -22%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$27 +443%
Will Tencent have the second best AI model on September 30? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 12 $56 +$636 +1128%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $211 −$113 -54%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $78 +$99 +127%
Will Google reach $420 in December? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Jun 12 $23 +$73 +312%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$356 +864%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Social Contract win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 12 $58 +$30 +51%
Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Jun 12 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O Jun 12 $10 −$9 -95%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $37 +$25 +68%
Will Vladimir Putin rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Jun 12 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Pope Francis rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners t Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on December 5? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +512%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Jun 12 $146 +$407 +279%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -54%
Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contro Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$42 -85%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 12 $34 +$432 +1279%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 12 $20 +$75 +381%
Will Taylor Swift have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listener Jun 12 $7 −$6 -93%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$190
tech 39% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 30m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 53m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+93.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 +114.3% +93.9% 33% 30% +42.8%
≤30d 282 +114.3% +93.9% 33% 30% +42.8%
≤90d 282 +114.3% +93.9% 33% 30% +42.8%
all 282 +114.3% +93.9% 33% 30% +42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover814.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +93.9% 30% +42.8%
10% ← realistic here +75.3% 29% +29.1%
15% +58.4% 28% +16.6%
20% +42.9% 27% +5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,212.21 · official $1,212.21 (match) · 3500 history records