Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa443…4736
crypto · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$39 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage77d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 3 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Yes 21¢ 46¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+121%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1 $0 -22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 +$3 +95%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? Apr 24 $15 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 21 $3 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 21 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 15 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournam Apr 15 $13 −$7 -51%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 05 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$9 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$2 +177%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 01 $14 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% −$31
crypto 31% −$11
politics 10% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 23d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 23d
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28d
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 28d
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 29d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 53d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 53d
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 53d
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 53d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 33% -9.0%
≤30d 7 -27.2% -34.1% 43% 43% -40.4%
≤90d 25 -15.3% -23.3% 48% 44% -30.9%
all 25 -15.3% -23.3% 48% 44% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 44% -30.9%
10% -30.7% 24% -37.5%
15% -37.4% 20% -43.5%
20% -43.5% 16% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.38 · official $15.38 (match) · 62 history records