Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A4 0xa442…b5df crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$154
other 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.6% -18.2% 79% 29% -7.4%
≤30d 15 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 33% -7.3%
≤90d 15 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 33% -7.3%
all 15 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 33% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 33% -7.3%
10% -22.0% 20% -16.1%
15% -29.6% 13% -24.2%
20% -36.5% 13% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$105 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage9d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 95¢ 96¢ $870 $878 +$9 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $1,572 +$167 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $393 +$10 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $1,454 +$108 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $808 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$93 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$6 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $141 +$40 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 27 $135 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $133 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 27 $126 +$7 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $877 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $62 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $62 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $62 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $83 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $111 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $148 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $199 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $267 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $222 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $297 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $393 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $85 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $267 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1,087 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $808 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $104 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $47 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $46 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $47 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $53 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $72 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.18 · official $832.21 · 51 history records