Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa440…ae05 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-1%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$34
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$30
politics 25% −$20
sports 18% −$61
crypto 10% −$3
finance 5% −$3
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% −$3
world 4% +$22
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 57 -2.6% -11.8% 5% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 116 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 1% -10.0%
all 138 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 121
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage104d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $411 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $36 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $144 −$3 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $55 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $119 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $258 −$4 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $51 $0 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $156 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $191 −$2 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $251 −$3 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $89 −$4 -5%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $84 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $66 −$4 -5%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $368 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $84 −$1 -2%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 03 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 9h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $56 9h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $56 14h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $12 15h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $12 23h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $43 23h
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $44 27h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $28 28h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $28 33h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $40 33h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 40h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $51 41h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 90¢ $51 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $55 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $62 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $63 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $40 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $41 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.26 · official $58.26 (match) · 524 history records