Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A4
0xa43e…aec9
crypto · 1519 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,025 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,026 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized+$2,026
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses821 / 712
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1533 / 1519
History coverage46d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day61.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1533 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$732
7 days−$478
14 days+$1,465
30 days+$1,997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 59¢ 50¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$2,995
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 296 -46.7% -51.8% 27% 27% -20.9%
≤30d 1075 -2.7% -11.9% 52% 51% +1.9%
≤90d 1533 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 52% +0.2%
all 1533 -1.5% -10.9% 54% 52% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 52% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 51% -9.4%
15% -27.2% 50% -18.2%
20% -34.3% 46% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.45 · official $10.02 (match) · 3500 history records