Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa43e…d993 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$16
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$9
other 1% −$10
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -7.0% -15.8% 59% 52% -11.5%
≤30d 48 -7.9% -16.7% 58% 52% -10.8%
≤90d 48 -7.9% -16.7% 58% 52% -10.8%
all 48 -7.9% -16.7% 58% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 52% -10.8%
10% -24.7% 46% -19.3%
15% -31.9% 33% -27.1%
20% -38.6% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$36 +140%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 41h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records