Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A4 0xa43e…ec90 crypto 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,855 (+2%) realized +$1,749 · open +$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 138L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$121
14 days+$1,087
30 days+$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$559
tech 2% +$104
crypto 1% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.5% -43.4% 60% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 18 -5.8% -14.8% 39% 6% -7.4%
≤90d 162 -15.4% -23.4% 15% 7% -8.6%
all 162 -15.4% -23.4% 15% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 7% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 7% -17.3%
15% -37.5% 7% -25.3%
20% -43.6% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +36% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$15 · ×6.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,445
Realized+$1,749
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$497
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $1,330 $1,434 +$104 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $393 +$35 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $392 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2,167 −$198 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $9,256 −$41 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4,432 +$75 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $209 +$1,172 +562%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,568 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $922 +$27 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $209 −$200 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $209 −$200 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,519 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $8,197 −$49 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3,338 −$257 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $3,855 −$5 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8,999 +$177 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,630 −$13 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $742 −$7 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $5,144 +$69 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $681 +$17 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $790 −$9 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $3,009 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2,555 +$184 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $3,673 −$195 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $5,884 −$190 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $4,124 +$352 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $475 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 08 $3 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $168 +$25 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $366 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $288 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $72 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $71 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $142 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $144 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $145 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $2 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $2 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $4 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $3 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $39 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $52 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $51 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $11 30h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $82 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $23 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $59 31h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $63 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $335 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $47 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $217 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,445.23 · official $1,445.23 (match) · 3500 history records