Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A4 0xa43c…f22d sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+18%) realized +$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$19
other 25% +$11
world 2% −$3
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +36.5% +23.5% 61% 61% +20.7%
≤30d 36 +36.5% +23.5% 61% 61% +20.7%
≤90d 36 +36.5% +23.5% 61% 61% +20.7%
all 36 +36.5% +23.5% 61% 61% +20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 61% +20.7%
10% +11.7% 61% +9.2%
15% +0.9% 61% -1.4%
20% -9.0% 61% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)36 / 54
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +178%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +119%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$3 +158%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina BUY 37¢ $2 43m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina BUY 21¢ $2 44m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 46m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 46m
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 47m
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 48m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 48m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 49m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 49m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 49m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 49m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 50m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 51m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina BUY 25¢ $3 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina BUY 37¢ $3 55m
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 57m
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 58m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 58m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 59m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 36¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.05 · official $75.06 · 89 history records