Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A4 0xa434…2bf6 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$109 (-0%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$15
politics 25% −$7
sports 6% −$87
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 84 -3.7% -12.9% 2% 2% -9.9%
all 100 -7.5% -16.3% 4% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 4% -10.0%
10% -24.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -31.7% 2% -26.4%
20% -38.4% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage118d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $364 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $354 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $192 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $164 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $203 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $443 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $769 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $210 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $192 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $189 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $426 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $457 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $408 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,339 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $351 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $180 40d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $180 48d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 48d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 48d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 48d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 49d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $149 50d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $149 50d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 50d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $167 50d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $192 50d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $192 50d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $170 51d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $170 51d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 51d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 52d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $191 52d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $191 52d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $197 52d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $197 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.96 · official $55.96 (match) · 316 history records