Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa431…3867 sports 436 markets active 3h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized −$67 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate50%215W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$31
14 days+$6
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$41
world 7% −$76
other 4% −$15
finance 2% +$11
politics 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$23
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% −$4
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -10.8% -19.3% 52% 17% -13.7%
≤30d 270 +2.1% -7.6% 44% 24% -12.0%
≤90d 434 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 26% -11.9%
all 434 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 26% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 26% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 19% -20.3%
15% -26.0% 15% -28.0%
20% -33.3% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses215 / 219
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)434 / 436
History coverage56d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 16¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+525%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$3 -28%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $9 −$1 -9%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $18 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $14 −$2 -18%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 −$2 -23%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $27 +$3 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$16 +157%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$1 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $22 +$4 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 −$7 -41%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$1 -9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $14 −$5 -34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$1 -3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$2 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$1 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$2 -14%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$6 -69%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$9 -38%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 −$2 -23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$3 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$5 -70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$13 +171%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$9 -54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$8 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$12 +128%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $9 −$1 -10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $10 $0 -1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $7 +$12 +175%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $14 −$2 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 73¢ $3 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 73¢ $4 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 73¢ $1 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 76¢ $2 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 76¢ $5 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 16¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 98¢ $12 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 96¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 98¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $2 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $3 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 13¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $5 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 97¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 97¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 97¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 45¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.00 · official $7.00 (match) · 2159 history records