Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A4 0xa431…8e46 world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-22%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$63
14 days−$57
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$58
other 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.4% -41.5% 33% 33% -60.7%
≤30d 11 -5.0% -14.1% 45% 36% -32.3%
≤90d 11 -5.0% -14.1% 45% 36% -32.3%
all 11 -5.0% -14.1% 45% 36% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 36% -32.3%
10% -22.3% 27% -38.8%
15% -29.8% 18% -44.7%
20% -36.7% 18% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage15d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -39%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 +$11 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $32 +$7 +21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $25 −$21 -83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$28 +175%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -49%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$4 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $6 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $10 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $43 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $22 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $60 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $5 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $39 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $15 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $32 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $15 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.92 · official $29.92 (match) · 29 history records